Toulouse 4-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Nancy meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nancy (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nancy have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Toulouse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nancy in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Nancy and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 4–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 60% and Nancy 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 55% | Nancy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.94 xG and Nancy 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.406 / defence 1.217 | Nancy attack 0.851 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.071. Toulouse carry an above-average attack strength of 1.406 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Toulouse games / 20 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 57% | Draw 22% | Nancy 21%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Nancy 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Nancy 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 57% | Draw 22% | Nancy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Toulouse 1.94 / Nancy 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.406 / def 1.217 | Nancy attack 0.851 / def 1.411 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Nancy xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nancy kick off?
Toulouse vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nancy?
Toulouse 4 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Toulouse vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nancy part of?
Toulouse vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 57% chance of winning, Nancy a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Toulouse and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Nancy in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Nancy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.41x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.85x) against Toulouse's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.52
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.05
1.11
Nancy xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
32.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.11 for Nancy, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Toulouse come into this having played 20 games, going 10W 8D 2L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.75 PPG from 20 outings (3W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Toulouse's home form reads 5W 4D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.80 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nancy in 60%.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nancy in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 10W 8D 2L in their last 20 games (1.90 PPG), while Nancy have gone 3W 6D 11L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nancy away?
Toulouse's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.90 PPG; Nancy away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Nancy in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2022, when Toulouse 4-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nancy?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Toulouse, 70% for Nancy — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Toulouse) and 50% (Nancy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Toulouse's games and 70% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Nancy's.
Do Toulouse and Nancy tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Nancy in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nancy 4-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.94 xG and Nancy 1.11 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nancy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.41 / defence 1.22 against Nancy attack 0.85 / defence 1.41, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 57% | Draw 22% | Nancy 21%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 55%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.