Sochaux 1-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Toulouse at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sochaux — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sochaux have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Auguste-Bonal — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 2.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Sochaux's 1.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sochaux have won 0, Toulouse 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sochaux in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 33% | Toulouse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.952 / defence 0.935 | Toulouse attack 1.279 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Sochaux games / 33 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 38%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sochaux 50% | Toulouse 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Sochaux 1.14 / Toulouse 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.952 / def 0.935 | Toulouse attack 1.279 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Toulouse xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Toulouse kick off?
Sochaux vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Toulouse?
Sochaux 1 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Sochaux vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Toulouse part of?
Sochaux vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 33% chance of winning, Toulouse a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sochaux and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Sochaux and Toulouse in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Toulouse (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.95) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
33%
3.03
29%
3.41
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.38
1.24
Toulouse xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.24 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sochaux come into this having played 33 games, going 17W 9D 7L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.18 PPG from 33 outings (21W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 1.82 PPG, Toulouse on 2.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sochaux's home form reads 9W 4D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 2.00 points per game from 16 outings (9W 5D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.33 scored and 0.88 conceded. Toulouse's attacking output running into Sochaux's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Toulouse in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 17W 9D 7L in their last 33 games (1.82 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 9D 3L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.94 PPG; Toulouse away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Toulouse in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sochaux and Toulouse runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sochaux
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 0, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Sochaux 1-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 31%, Toulouse 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Sochaux and 56% for Toulouse.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Toulouse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sochaux's recent matches and 56% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Sochaux's recent games and 56% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Toulouse tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Toulouse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux and Toulouse finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.14 xG and Toulouse 1.24 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Toulouse attack 1.28 / defence 1.28, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 38%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 33%, Toulouse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.82 PPG, Toulouse 2.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.