Sochaux 1-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sochaux at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Nancy travel to Stade Auguste-Bonal to take on Sochaux. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sochaux — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nancy away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sochaux have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sochaux have won 0, Nancy 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sochaux in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nancy in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 45% versus Nancy 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 32% | Nancy 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.60 xG and Nancy 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.976 / defence 1.025 | Nancy attack 0.686 / defence 1.663. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 0.967. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.663 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Sochaux games / 31 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 59% | Draw 27% | Nancy 15%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sochaux 50% | Nancy 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 59% | Draw 27% | Nancy 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Sochaux 1.60 / Nancy 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.976 / def 1.025 | Nancy attack 0.686 / def 1.663 | league avg home 0.988 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Nancy xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Nancy kick off?
Sochaux vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Nancy?
Sochaux 1 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Sochaux vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Nancy part of?
Sochaux vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 59% chance of winning, Nancy a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sochaux and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 0W | Draws 1 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Nancy in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.98x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.73
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.28
0.68
Nancy xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
3%
34.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.68 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sochaux come into this having played 31 games, going 15W 9D 7L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.74 PPG from 31 outings (5W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sochaux's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.47 points per game from 15 outings (1W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sochaux are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.81 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Nancy in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 15W 9D 7L in their last 31 games (1.74 PPG), while Nancy have gone 5W 8D 18L in their last 31 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Nancy away?
Sochaux's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.87 PPG; Nancy away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Nancy in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sochaux
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Sochaux 1-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Nancy?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 33%, Nancy 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Sochaux and 47% for Nancy.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sochaux have failed to score in 27% of games; Nancy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sochaux's recent matches and 60% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Sochaux's recent games and 47% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Nancy tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nancy in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Nancy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Nancy 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.60 xG and Nancy 0.68 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Nancy attack 0.69 / defence 1.66, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 59% | Draw 27% | Nancy 15%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 32%, Nancy 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.