Saint Etienne 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Rodez meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Rodez have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Saint Etienne, 1.80 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 2 for Rodez and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 47% versus Rodez 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 45% | Rodez 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.42 xG and Rodez 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.057 / defence 0.743 | Rodez attack 1.165 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Saint Etienne games / 73 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 3.85. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Rodez lead the H2H ledger, but Saint Etienne carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Rodez 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Saint Etienne 1.42 / Rodez 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.057 / def 0.743 | Rodez attack 1.165 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rodez kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rodez part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 46% chance of winning, Rodez a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Rodez (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.06x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.17x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.41
0.99
Rodez xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.99 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 34W 18D 21L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 25W 24D 24L from 73 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.36 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.83 PPG from 36 outings (20W 6D 10L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 12W 11D 13L from 36 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.33 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 34W 18D 21L in their last 73 games (1.64 PPG), while Rodez have gone 25W 24D 24L in their last 73 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rodez away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.83 PPG; Rodez away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rodez in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, Rodez 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Saint Etienne) and 47% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rodez in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 56% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 47% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rodez tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Rodez in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 37, as Saint Etienne and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.42 xG and Rodez 0.99 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 0.74 against Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 28% | Rodez 26%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 45%, Rodez 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.64 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.