Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Estac Troyes at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 2.30 PPG, Estac Troyes 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Saint Etienne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Estac Troyes, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Estac Troyes trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Estac Troyes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.310 / defence 0.870 | Estac Troyes attack 0.993 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.172. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Saint Etienne games / 65 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 22%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 4.55. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Estac Troyes 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Saint Etienne 1.56 / Estac Troyes 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.310 / def 0.870 | Estac Troyes attack 0.993 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Estac Troyes xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 3 Estac Troyes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 48% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Saint Etienne 4W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.31x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.35
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.57
1.01
Estac Troyes xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
21.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.01 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 25W 12D 28L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 31W 12D 22L from 65 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.34 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (16W 5D 11L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 11W 7D 14L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.37 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 25W 12D 28L in their last 65 games (1.34 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 31W 12D 22L in their last 65 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Estac Troyes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.66 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 56%, Estac Troyes 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Saint Etienne) and 50% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 34%; Estac Troyes in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 44% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Saint Etienne 0-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.31 / defence 0.87 against Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 22%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.34 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.