Rouen 1-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rouen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rouen vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Rouen versus Laval in Ligue 2, Final. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rouen 1.17 xG and Laval 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rouen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Laval attack 0.736 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.253. Data: 0 Rouen games / 68 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rouen 37% | Draw 32% | Laval 31%. Fair-value odds: Rouen 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Laval 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rouen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rouen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rouen vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Final | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rouen 37% | Draw 32% | Laval 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Rouen 1.17 / Laval 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rouen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Laval attack 0.736 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rouen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Rouen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Laval xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rouen vs Laval kick off?
Rouen vs Laval kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Rouen vs Laval?
Rouen 1 - 1 Laval.
Where is Rouen vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Rouen vs Laval part of?
Rouen vs Laval is a Final fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rouen vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Rouen a 37% chance of winning, Laval a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rouen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rouen vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rouen and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Rouen vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rouen and Laval?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rouen and Laval in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Laval away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rouen's attack rating (0.85) and Laval's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.74x) against Rouen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 0/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rouen Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Rouen xG
Total xG
2.23
1.06
Laval xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rouen vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rouen and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Rouen and 1.06 for Laval, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Rouen vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rouen
Pre-Season
Laval
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rouen
1
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rouen and Laval?
From 2 meetings on record, Rouen have won 0, Laval have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rouen and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Laval 1-0 Rouen.
Who has won more matches between Rouen and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rouen home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Rouen and Laval share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Final, as Rouen and Laval drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rouen 1.17 xG and Laval 1.06 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rouen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Laval attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rouen 37% | Draw 32% | Laval 31%, with Rouen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.