Rodez 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAU are 3.00 PPG clear of Rodez in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.02 xG and PAU 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | PAU attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Rodez games / 1 PAU games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rodez 25% | Draw 35% | PAU 40%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | PAU 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 25% | Draw 35% | PAU 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Rodez 1.02 / PAU 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | PAU attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.33
PAU xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs PAU kick off?
Rodez vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs PAU?
Rodez 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Rodez vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs PAU part of?
Rodez vs PAU is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 25% chance of winning, PAU a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rodez and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and PAU in?
Rodez (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. PAU (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.98x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.85x) against Rodez's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
PAU xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Rodez and 1.33 for PAU, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAU by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; PAU in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and PAU in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and PAU?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rodez's recent matches and 100% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rodez's matches and 100% of PAU's.
Do Rodez and PAU tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, PAU in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.02 xG and PAU 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAU landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against PAU attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 25% | Draw 35% | PAU 40%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 100%, PAU 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Rodez winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rodez scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAU managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.