Rodez 1-1 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Niort meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Niort (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rodez 1W, Niort 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Niort half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 36% versus Niort 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 27% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.21 xG and Niort 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.969 / defence 1.203 | Niort attack 0.829 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Data: 55 Rodez games / 55 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 50% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Rodez 1.21 / Niort 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.969 / def 1.203 | Niort attack 0.829 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Niort xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Niort kick off?
Rodez vs Niort kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Niort?
Rodez 1 - 1 Niort.
Where is Rodez vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Niort part of?
Rodez vs Niort is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Niort a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rodez and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Niort?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | Niort 0W.
What form are Rodez and Niort in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Niort (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.97x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.83x) against Rodez's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.19
0.98
Niort xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rodez and 0.98 for Niort, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 14W 19D 22L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort's form line: 16W 14D 25L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Rodez against 1.13 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (6W 12D 9L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 7D 14L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 0.96 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Niort in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 19D 22L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Niort have gone 16W 14D 25L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Niort away?
Rodez's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.11 PPG; Niort away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Rodez or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Niort in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Niort have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Niort 2-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Niort?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 44%, Niort 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Rodez) and 48% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 37% of games; Niort in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rodez's recent matches and 37% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Rodez's recent games and 48% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Niort tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Niort in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Niort share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 18, as Rodez and Niort drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.21 xG and Niort 0.98 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Niort attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Niort 30%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 27%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Niort's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.11 PPG, Niort 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.