Rodez 1-1 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 39%, yet in-form Le Mans provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rodez vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Le Mans travel to Stade Paul-Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Mans — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Mans have gone 3W 4D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Le Mans are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Rodez, 0 for Le Mans and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Le Mans in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 67% versus Le Mans 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 50% | Le Mans 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.36 xG and Le Mans 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.992 / defence 0.956 | Le Mans attack 1.101 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.181. Data: 52 Rodez games / 18 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Le Mans 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Mans (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Le Mans 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Rodez 1.36 / Le Mans 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.992 / def 0.956 | Le Mans attack 1.101 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Le Mans xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Le Mans kick off?
Rodez vs Le Mans kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Le Mans?
Rodez 1 - 1 Le Mans.
Where is Rodez vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Le Mans part of?
Rodez vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 39% chance of winning, Le Mans a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rodez and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Mans?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Le Mans 0W.
What form are Rodez and Le Mans in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Le Mans (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.99x the league average against Le Mans's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Mans's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
39%
2.53
26%
3.80
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.60
1.24
Le Mans xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Rodez and 1.24 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Mans, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 3L across 18 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Mans by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Mans's away record stands at 3W 4D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.22 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Mans in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Le Mans
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Le Mans away?
Le Mans's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.50 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Rodez or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Le Mans in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Le Mans runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
0
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Le Mans have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Le Mans.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Le Mans?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 75%, Le Mans at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 62% (Le Mans). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rodez's games and 88% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rodez's matches and 62% of Le Mans's.
Do Rodez and Le Mans tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.36 xG and Le Mans 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Le Mans attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 39% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 50%, Le Mans 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Le Mans's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.