Rodez 3-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rodez at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Laval haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Laval away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Rodez's favour (2.20 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Laval have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Rodez's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Laval have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Laval — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 69% versus Laval 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 50% | Laval 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.47 xG and Laval 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.049 / defence 0.949 | Laval attack 0.890 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Rodez games / 34 Laval games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 29% | Laval 26%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 3.85. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Laval lead the H2H ledger, but Rodez carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 29% | Laval 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rodez 1.47 / Laval 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.049 / def 0.949 | Laval attack 0.890 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Laval xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Laval kick off?
Rodez vs Laval kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Laval?
Rodez 3 - 1 Laval.
Where is Rodez vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Laval part of?
Rodez vs Laval is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Laval a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rodez and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
Record (8 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 2 | Laval 5W.
What form are Rodez and Laval in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.05) and Laval's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.89x) against Rodez's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.44
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.54
1.06
Laval xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rodez and 1.06 for Laval, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 14D 6L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. Rodez haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.00 PPG from 36 outings (7W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. Laval haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Laval — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 8W 7D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 0.89 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Pre-Season
Laval
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Laval in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 16W 14D 6L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Laval have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Laval away?
Rodez's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.82 PPG; Laval away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
5
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Laval have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Rodez 3-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 71%, Laval 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rodez) and 29% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 35%; Laval in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Rodez's recent matches and 35% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rodez's recent games and 29% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Laval tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Laval in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Laval 3-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.47 xG and Laval 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Laval attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 29% | Laval 26%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 50%, Laval 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.