Rodez 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.10 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Guingamp 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 63% versus Guingamp 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 56% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.11 xG and Guingamp 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.066 / defence 1.196 | Guingamp attack 0.960 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.145. Data: 41 Rodez games / 41 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 41%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 60% | Guingamp 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Rodez 1.11 / Guingamp 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.066 / def 1.196 | Guingamp attack 0.960 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Rodez 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 31% chance of winning, Guingamp a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (6 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 4 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.07) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.66
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.43
1.32
Guingamp xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Rodez and 1.32 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 15W 12D 14L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 14L across 41 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.39 PPG, Guingamp on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Guingamp in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Rodez's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.70 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Rodez or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Guingamp in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 65%, Guingamp 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rodez) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 45%; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Rodez's recent matches and 40% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rodez's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Rodez 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Rodez 1-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.11 xG and Guingamp 1.32 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 41%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 56%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.39 PPG, Guingamp 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.