Rodez 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Rodez welcome Ajaccio to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rodez are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rodez, 2 for Ajaccio and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ajaccio trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 60% versus Ajaccio 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 47% | Ajaccio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 2.06 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.209 / defence 1.073 | Ajaccio attack 0.550 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Rodez games / 37 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 69% | Draw 20% | Ajaccio 11%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Ajaccio 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Ajaccio lead the H2H ledger, but Rodez carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 70% | Ajaccio 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 69% | Draw 20% | Ajaccio 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Rodez 2.06 / Ajaccio 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.209 / def 1.073 | Ajaccio attack 0.550 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Rodez (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ajaccio xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Ajaccio kick off?
Rodez vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Rodez 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Rodez vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Ajaccio part of?
Rodez vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 69% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rodez and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Ajaccio?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 2W.
What form are Rodez and Ajaccio in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rodez's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
69%
1.45
20%
4.89
11%
9.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.75
0.69
Ajaccio xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
9.30
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
35%
2.90
1%
72.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Rodez and 0.69 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 25W 25D 24L from 74 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 40L across 74 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.35 PPG, Ajaccio on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 13W 13D 10L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajaccio's away record stands at 5W 6D 25L across 36 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.77 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 25W 25D 24L in their last 74 games (1.35 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 19W 15D 40L in their last 74 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Ajaccio away?
Rodez's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.44 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Ajaccio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajaccio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Rodez's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
4
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Ajaccio have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Rodez 1-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 64%, Ajaccio 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 53% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Rodez's recent matches and 36% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 53% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 2.06 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against Ajaccio attack 0.55 / defence 1.36, drawn from 74/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 69% | Draw 20% | Ajaccio 11%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 47%, Ajaccio 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.35 PPG, Ajaccio 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.