RED Star FC 93 1-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Paris plays host to RED Star FC 93 versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Paris, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Metz's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Metz are 1.00 PPG clear of RED Star FC 93 in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
RED Star FC 93 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RED Star FC 93 50% and Metz 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 60% | Metz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Metz 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.801 / defence 1.433 | Metz attack 0.919 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Data: 10 RED Star FC 93 games / 10 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 25% | Metz 43%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Metz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Metz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 25% | Metz 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.26 / Metz 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.801 / def 1.433 | Metz attack 0.919 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Metz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Metz xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Metz kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Metz kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 0 Metz.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Metz part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Metz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 32% chance of winning, Metz a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Metz in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Metz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.92x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
32%
3.13
25%
3.96
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.76
1.50
Metz xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.50 for Metz, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 2L across 10 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Metz by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RED Star FC 93 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Metz in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Metz have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.00 PPG; Metz away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Metz?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Metz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Metz 2-2 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Metz?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 50%, Metz 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for RED Star FC 93 and 75% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of RED Star FC 93's games and 75% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 75% of Metz's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Metz tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Metz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RED Star FC 93 defy the odds to beat Metz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Metz 1-0 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Metz 1.50 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.80 / defence 1.43 against Metz attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 32% | Draw 25% | Metz 43%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 60%, Metz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Metz's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.