RED Star FC 93 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Bauer to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Annecy (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Annecy are 0.50 PPG clear of RED Star FC 93 in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 57% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 49% | Annecy 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.20 xG and Annecy 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.929 / defence 1.196 | Annecy attack 0.840 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.154. Data: 37 RED Star FC 93 games / 37 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Annecy 35%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 70% | Annecy 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Annecy 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.20 / Annecy 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.929 / def 1.196 | Annecy attack 0.840 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Annecy xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, Annecy a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 2W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.84x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.57
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.35
1.16
Annecy xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.16 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 12D 15L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy's form line: 15W 10D 12L from 37 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.49 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.22 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 10W 12D 15L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Annecy away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.28 PPG; Annecy away: 1.11 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Annecy in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 56%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 39% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 39% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Annecy tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Annecy in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.20 xG and Annecy 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Annecy 35%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Annecy 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.14 PPG, Annecy 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.