Quevilly 1-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 36%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Annecy travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly in Ligue 2 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Quevilly have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Quevilly at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Annecy away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Annecy and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Quevilly 2–2 Annecy — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Annecy trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 49% versus Annecy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 47% | Annecy 47%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Quevilly recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.870 / defence 1.201 | Annecy attack 0.934 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Quevilly's last 49 games and Annecy's last 49.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.75 | Draw 3.58 | Annecy 2.80. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Quevilly 36% and Annecy 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Quevilly 60% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Quevilly 1.25 / Annecy 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.870 / def 1.201 | Annecy attack 0.934 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Quevilly and Annecy level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Annecy kick off?
Quevilly vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Quevilly 1 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Quevilly vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Annecy part of?
Quevilly vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 36% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Quevilly and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Quevilly vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.87) and Annecy's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 49 games and Annecy's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Annecy xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.24 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 13W 18D 18L from 49 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 18L across 49 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.16 PPG, Annecy on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 11D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 3W 10D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Quevilly (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Quevilly vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Annecy in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Annecy away?
Quevilly's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.21 PPG; Annecy away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Annecy?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 0, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2024: Annecy 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 62%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Quevilly) and 58% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Quevilly's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Quevilly and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Quevilly's matches and 58% of Annecy's.
Do Quevilly and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Quevilly's recent matches and 71% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Annecy attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 36% | Draw 28% | Annecy 36%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 47%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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