Quevilly 0-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 45%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Quevilly vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Angers meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stade Robert Diochon — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
Angers's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Angers arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Angers — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 49% versus Angers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 47% | Angers 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.39 xG and Angers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.846 / defence 1.199 | Angers attack 0.791 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Quevilly games / 7 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Angers 3.85. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 70% | Angers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Quevilly 1.39 / Angers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.846 / def 1.199 | Angers attack 0.791 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Angers xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Angers kick off?
Quevilly vs Angers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Angers?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Angers.
Where is Quevilly vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Angers part of?
Quevilly vs Angers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 45% chance of winning, Angers a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Quevilly and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Angers in?
Quevilly (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Angers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.85x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.79x) against Quevilly's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.49
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.38
0.99
Angers xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.99 for Angers, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 12W 16D 17L from 45 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 30L across 45 games — 0.64 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Quevilly by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Angers heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 10D 6L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 2W 3D 17L across 22 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.91 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Angers in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 16D 17L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Angers have gone 7W 8D 30L in their last 45 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Angers away?
Quevilly's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.27 PPG; Angers away: 0.41 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Angers in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Quevilly
0
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Angers?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Angers have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Angers 3-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 64%, Angers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Quevilly) and 59% (Angers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 27% of games; Angers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Quevilly's recent matches and 41% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Quevilly's matches and 59% of Angers's.
Do Quevilly and Angers tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Angers in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.39 xG and Angers 0.99 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Angers attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 45% | Draw 29% | Angers 26%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 47%, Angers 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Angers's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.