PAU 0-3 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Sochaux meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAU, 2 for Sochaux and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Sochaux 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 46% | Sochaux 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.97 xG and Sochaux 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.918 / defence 0.955 | Sochaux attack 0.952 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Data: 41 PAU games / 41 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Sochaux 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Sochaux 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Sochaux 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG PAU 0.97 / Sochaux 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.918 / def 0.955 | Sochaux attack 0.952 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: PAU (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sochaux xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Sochaux kick off?
PAU vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Sochaux?
PAU 0 - 3 Sochaux.
Where is PAU vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Sochaux part of?
PAU vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 35% chance of winning, Sochaux a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both PAU and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Sochaux?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 2W.
What form are PAU and Sochaux in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Sochaux (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.95x) against PAU's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.87
32%
3.16
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
PAU xG
Total xG
1.92
0.95
Sochaux xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for PAU and 0.95 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 14W 9D 18L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 9L across 41 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAU heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 10W 3D 7L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sochaux's away record stands at 8W 6D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.12 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Sochaux in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 19W 13D 9L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Sochaux away?
PAU's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.65 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.50 PPG.
Have PAU or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
0
Draws
3
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Sochaux have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Sochaux 2-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 40%, Sochaux 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 40% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sochaux in 40%; Sochaux in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAU's recent matches and 45% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 40% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Sochaux tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sochaux run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat PAU 0-3 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.97 xG and Sochaux 0.95 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sochaux outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Sochaux attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Sochaux 34%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sochaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Sochaux 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.