PAU 3-4 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as PAU take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Quevilly away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PAU, 1.10 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PAU, 2 for Quevilly and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 45% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 41% | Quevilly 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.81 xG and Quevilly 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.820 / defence 0.972 | Quevilly attack 0.713 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Quevilly's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 PAU games / 71 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 30%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Quevilly 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 33% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG PAU 0.81 / Quevilly 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.820 / def 0.972 | Quevilly attack 0.713 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Quevilly xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Quevilly kick off?
PAU vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Quevilly?
PAU 3 - 4 Quevilly.
Where is PAU vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Quevilly part of?
PAU vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 33% chance of winning, Quevilly a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both PAU and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are PAU and Quevilly in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAU's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.71x) against PAU's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.71
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
PAU xG
Total xG
1.57
0.76
Quevilly xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.31
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for PAU and 0.76 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, PAU have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 24W 17D 30L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Quevilly's form line: 22W 21D 28L from 71 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for PAU against 1.23 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (14W 8D 12L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 10W 6D 18L from 34 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Quevilly in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 24W 17D 30L in their last 71 games (1.25 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 22W 21D 28L in their last 71 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Quevilly away?
PAU's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.47 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Quevilly have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (PAU) and 24% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PAU) and 32% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 32% of games; Quevilly in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAU's recent matches and 24% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PAU's recent games and 32% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Quevilly tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat PAU 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat PAU 3-4 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.81 xG and Quevilly 0.76 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly outscored their 0.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Quevilly attack 0.71 / defence 0.79, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 33% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 41%, Quevilly 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.25 PPG, Quevilly 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.