PAU 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Guingamp encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Guingamp travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

PAU's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

PAU carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of PAU's games and 60% of Guingamp's (from PAU's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Guingamp have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 2 for PAU.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended PAU 2–2 Guingamp — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Guingamp have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

PAU in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Guingamp 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAU surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.971 / defence 1.338 | Guingamp attack 1.010 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. PAU's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 64 games and Guingamp's last 64.

Result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.56 | Draw 3.46 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Guingamp have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), but PAU carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Guingamp 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 60% (last 10 away games).

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