PAU 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Guingamp travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, PAU have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (PAU) versus 1.50 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PAU, 3 for Guingamp and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended PAU 0–4 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Guingamp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Guingamp 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.20 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.182 / defence 1.117 | Guingamp attack 0.858 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: built from PAU's last 72 games and Guingamp's last 72.
Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.62 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 60% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG PAU 1.20 / Guingamp 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.182 / def 1.117 | Guingamp attack 0.858 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: PAU (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Guingamp xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 72 games and Guingamp's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.45
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
PAU xG
Total xG
2.29
1.09
Guingamp xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for PAU and 1.09 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, PAU have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 25W 23D 24L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 27W 21D 24L from 72 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.36 PPG, Guingamp on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 36 home games (13W 12D 11L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 15W 11D 10L from their last 36 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.25 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
PAU (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 25W 23D 24L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.42 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.56 PPG.
Have PAU or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Guingamp in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won Guingamp 4-0 PAU.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Guingamp 1-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 47%, Guingamp 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAU) and 36% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Guingamp in 39%; PAU have failed to score in 28% of games; Guingamp in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAU's recent matches and 47% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAU's recent games and 36% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of PAU's recent matches and 64% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat PAU 1-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.20 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Guingamp 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.36 PPG, Guingamp 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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