PAU 0-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade du Hameau to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Hameau, PAU have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PAU, 1.30 for Dijon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Dijon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 49% | Dijon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.27 xG and Dijon 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.040 / defence 1.109 | Dijon attack 1.127 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.981. Data: 39 PAU games / 39 Dijon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 31% | Dijon 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dijon 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Dijon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade du Hameau • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 31% | Dijon 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG PAU 1.27 / Dijon 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.040 / def 1.109 | Dijon attack 1.127 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: PAU (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dijon xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dijon kick off?
PAU vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade du Hameau.
What was the final score in PAU vs Dijon?
PAU 0 - 0 Dijon.
Where is PAU vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hameau.
What competition is PAU vs Dijon part of?
PAU vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 35% chance of winning, Dijon a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAU and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are PAU and Dijon in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (1.13x) against PAU's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.19
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
PAU xG
Total xG
2.50
1.23
Dijon xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, PAU have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 14W 7D 18L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon's form line: 14W 8D 17L from 39 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for PAU against 1.28 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.68 PPG from 19 outings (10W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Dijon have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dijon in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Dijon have gone 14W 8D 17L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Dijon away?
PAU's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.68 PPG; Dijon away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dijon?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 42%, Dijon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAU) and 58% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Dijon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAU's recent matches and 58% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAU's recent games and 58% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Dijon tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dijon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAU's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Hameau, Regular Season - 2, as PAU and Dijon drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.27 xG and Dijon 1.23 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAU fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dijon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Dijon attack 1.13 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 31% | Dijon 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 49%, Dijon 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dijon's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.26 PPG, Dijon 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.