Paris FC 2-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris FC (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris FC face Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Grenoble at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Paris FC have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Paris FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grenoble — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Grenoble's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Paris FC hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for Grenoble and 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Paris FC 2–1 Grenoble — a Paris FC win.
The head-to-head data gives Paris FC an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Grenoble 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 49% | Grenoble 47%). Note also that Grenoble surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.59 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.926 | Grenoble attack 0.973 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.137. Data: built from Paris FC's last 47 games and Grenoble's last 47.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.98 | Draw 3.99 | Grenoble 4.10. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Paris FC 1.59 / Grenoble 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.083 / def 0.926 | Grenoble attack 0.973 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Grenoble xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Grenoble kick off?
Paris FC vs Grenoble kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Paris FC vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Grenoble part of?
Paris FC vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 10) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 51% chance of winning, Grenoble a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris FC and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.08) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 47 games and Grenoble's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.02
Grenoble xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.02 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 12D 12L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 18W 13D 16L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.72 PPG, Grenoble on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 22 home games (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 6W 5D 11L from their last 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Grenoble away?
Paris FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Grenoble in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Jul 2021, when Paris FC won Grenoble 0-4 Paris FC.
Paris FC's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Paris FC
0
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Grenoble?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 7, Grenoble have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Grenoble 1-2 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Grenoble?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Grenoble 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Paris FC) and 50% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Grenoble in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Paris FC's recent games and 50% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Paris FC's recent matches and 64% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Grenoble 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Grenoble 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.59 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Grenoble attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.72 PPG, Grenoble 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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