Niort 2-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Niort face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Niort and Rodez meet at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Niort's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Niort at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Rodez (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Rodez edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2023, ended Niort 1–1 Rodez — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 41% versus Rodez 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 44% | Rodez 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.06 xG and Rodez 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.003 / defence 1.215 | Rodez attack 0.846 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Niort's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Data: built from Niort's last 63 games and Rodez's last 63.
Result probabilities: Niort 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.92 | Draw 3.02 | Rodez 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Niort as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Niort's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Niort 50% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Niort 1.06 / Rodez 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.003 / def 1.215 | Rodez attack 0.846 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Niort (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Rodez xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Niort vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Niort vs Rodez kick off?
Niort vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Rodez?
Niort 2 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Niort vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Rodez part of?
Niort vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Niort and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Niort vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Niort's attack rating (1.00) and Rodez's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.85x) against Niort's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Niort's last 63 games and Rodez's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
34%
2.92
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Niort xG
Total xG
2.10
1.03
Rodez xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Niort vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Niort and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Niort and 1.03 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort's recent record stands at 18W 15D 30L from 63 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 14W 23D 26L across 63 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Niort against 1.03 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Niort have managed 11W 7D 13L from their last 31 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 9D 14L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Niort (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Niort
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Niort vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Niort and Rodez in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 23D 26L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Rodez away?
Niort's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.29 PPG; Rodez away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Niort or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rodez in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Niort vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Rodez?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Niort have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2023: Niort 2-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 45%, Rodez 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Niort) and 29% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 36%; Niort have failed to score in 39% of games; Rodez in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Niort vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Niort and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Niort's recent matches and 32% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Niort and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Niort's recent games and 29% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Niort 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Niort 2-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.06 xG and Rodez 1.03 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.00 / defence 1.22 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 44%, Rodez 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.10 PPG, Rodez 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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