Niort 3-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Niort face Bordeaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Bordeaux at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Niort have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Niort at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bordeaux stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bordeaux's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Niort at 1.20 PPG versus Bordeaux's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Niort, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2022, ended Niort 0–1 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 42% versus Bordeaux 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 43% | Bordeaux 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.89 xG and Bordeaux 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.848 / defence 1.261 | Bordeaux attack 1.191 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Niort's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Data: built from Niort's last 60 games and Bordeaux's last 22.
Result probabilities: Niort 21% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 54%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.78 | Draw 3.98 | Bordeaux 1.85. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Niort's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Niort 50% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 21% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Niort 0.89 / Bordeaux 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.848 / def 1.261 | Bordeaux attack 1.191 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Bordeaux xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Niort vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Niort vs Bordeaux kick off?
Niort vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Bordeaux?
Niort 3 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Niort vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Bordeaux part of?
Niort vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 21% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Niort and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Niort vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.85) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Niort's last 60 games and Bordeaux's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
21%
4.78
25%
3.98
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Niort xG
Total xG
2.48
1.59
Bordeaux xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
4%
23.52
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Niort vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Niort and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Niort and 1.59 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Niort come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 15D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.17 PPG from 60 outings (17W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.10 PPG, Bordeaux on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Niort's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 9D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.38 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
Niort (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Niort
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Niort vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Niort and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Bordeaux away?
Niort's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.23 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Niort
0
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Niort vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Bordeaux?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Niort have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2023: Niort 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 43%, Bordeaux 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Niort) and 70% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Niort have failed to score in 40% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Niort vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Niort and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Niort's recent matches and 57% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Niort and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Niort's matches and 70% of Bordeaux's.
Do Niort and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Niort's recent matches and 87% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Bordeaux 3-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.89 xG and Bordeaux 1.59 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.85 / defence 1.26 against Bordeaux attack 1.19 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 21% | Draw 25% | Bordeaux 54%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Niort win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 43%, Bordeaux 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.10 PPG, Bordeaux 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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