Nimes 3-3 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nimes at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nimes host Valenciennes at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Costières: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Nimes are significantly better at Stade des Costières than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Nimes) versus 0.80 (Valenciennes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nimes have won 2, Valenciennes 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with Valenciennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Valenciennes trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 49% versus Valenciennes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 51% | Valenciennes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.70 xG and Valenciennes 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.199 / defence 1.123 | Valenciennes attack 0.892 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Data: 71 Nimes games / 71 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 51% | Draw 25% | Valenciennes 24%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Valenciennes 4.17. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nimes as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 50% | Valenciennes 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 51% | Draw 25% | Valenciennes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Nimes 1.70 / Valenciennes 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.199 / def 1.123 | Valenciennes attack 0.892 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Nimes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Valenciennes xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Valenciennes kick off?
Nimes vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Nimes 3 - 3 Valenciennes.
Where is Nimes vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Valenciennes part of?
Nimes vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 51% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nimes and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Valenciennes?
Record (3 meetings): Nimes 2W | Draws 0 | Valenciennes 1W.
What form are Nimes and Valenciennes in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nimes's attack at 1.20x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.99
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
Valenciennes xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
22.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nimes and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Nimes and 1.09 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 23W 12D 36L from 71 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Valenciennes, meanwhile, have gone 18W 27D 26L across 71 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.14 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 14W 5D 16L from 35 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valenciennes's away record stands at 8W 12D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.97 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 23W 12D 36L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 18W 27D 26L in their last 71 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Valenciennes away?
Nimes's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.34 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Valenciennes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Nimes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nimes's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Nimes 3-3 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Valenciennes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 49%, Valenciennes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Nimes) and 31% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 34% of games; Valenciennes in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Nimes's recent matches and 46% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Nimes's recent games and 31% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nimes and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes and Valenciennes finished level at 3-3 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.70 xG and Valenciennes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valenciennes outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Valenciennes attack 0.89 / defence 1.13, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 51% | Draw 25% | Valenciennes 24%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 51%, Valenciennes 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.14 PPG, Valenciennes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valenciennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.