Nimes 3-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nimes at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nimes vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Nimes welcome Rodez to Stade des Costières. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nimes have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade des Costières — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rodez away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Nimes have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nimes have won 0, Rodez 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Rodez winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rodez in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 47% versus Rodez 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nimes 53% | Rodez 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.21 xG and Rodez 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.926 / defence 1.481 | Rodez attack 0.573 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Nimes games / 34 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 43% | Draw 32% | Rodez 25%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Rodez 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nimes as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 80% | Rodez 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 43% | Draw 32% | Rodez 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Nimes 1.21 / Rodez 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.926 / def 1.481 | Rodez attack 0.573 / def 1.383 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Nimes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Rodez xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Rodez kick off?
Nimes vs Rodez kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Rodez?
Nimes 3 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Nimes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Rodez part of?
Nimes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 43% chance of winning, Rodez a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nimes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Nimes and Rodez in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.15
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.08
0.87
Rodez xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nimes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nimes and 0.87 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 7D 15L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.00 PPG from 34 outings (7W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.26 PPG, Rodez on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nimes's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.76 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 13D 14L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Rodez away?
Nimes's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.12 PPG; Rodez away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Nimes or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Rodez in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Rodez runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nimes's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 2, Rodez have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Rodez 1-1 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Rodez?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 65%, Rodez 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Nimes) and 29% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 35% of games; Rodez in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Nimes's recent matches and 29% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Nimes's recent games and 29% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Rodez tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rodez in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nimes edge out Rodez 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Rodez 3-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.21 xG and Rodez 0.87 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.93 / defence 1.48 against Rodez attack 0.57 / defence 1.38, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 43% | Draw 32% | Rodez 25%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 53%, Rodez 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.26 PPG, Rodez 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.