Nimes 2-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Quevilly travel to Stade des Costières to take on Nimes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Costières: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 3W 2D 3L from 8 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nimes at 0.60 PPG versus Quevilly's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Quevilly in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 47% versus Quevilly 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 47% | Quevilly 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.03 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.851 / defence 1.391 | Quevilly attack 0.842 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Nimes games / 15 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 39%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Quevilly 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 43% | Quevilly 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Nimes 1.03 / Quevilly 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.851 / def 1.391 | Quevilly attack 0.842 / def 1.345 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Quevilly xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Quevilly kick off?
Nimes vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Quevilly?
Nimes 2 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Nimes vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Quevilly part of?
Nimes vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 32% chance of winning, Quevilly a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nimes and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Quevilly in?
Nimes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nimes's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
32%
3.12
29%
3.44
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.20
1.17
Quevilly xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nimes and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Nimes and 1.17 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nimes's recent record stands at 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 6L across 15 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.13 PPG, Quevilly on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.87 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 0.86 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Nimes or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Quevilly in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nimes's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nimes
0
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Nimes 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Quevilly?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 43%, Quevilly 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nimes) and 43% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 57% of games; Quevilly in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nimes's recent matches and 43% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nimes's recent games and 43% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Quevilly tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Quevilly 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Quevilly 2-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.03 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Quevilly attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 32% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 39%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 47%, Quevilly 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.13 PPG, Quevilly 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.