Nimes 0-2 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajaccio make the trip to Stade des Costières to face Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Nimes (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade des Costières, Nimes have gone 1W 3D 1L this season (5 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ajaccio have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ajaccio are 0.50 PPG clear of Nimes in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Nimes half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 46% versus Ajaccio 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nimes 46% | Ajaccio 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.94 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.928 / defence 1.197 | Ajaccio attack 0.848 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.034. Data: 11 Nimes games / 11 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 36%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Ajaccio 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 40% | Ajaccio 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Nimes 0.94 / Ajaccio 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.928 / def 1.197 | Ajaccio attack 0.848 / def 1.112 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ajaccio xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Ajaccio kick off?
Nimes vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Ajaccio?
Nimes 0 - 2 Ajaccio.
Where is Nimes vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Ajaccio part of?
Nimes vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 30% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Nimes and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Ajaccio in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nimes's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.85x) against Nimes's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.00
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.98
1.05
Ajaccio xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Nimes and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nimes and 1.05 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Nimes have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 3W 5D 3L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nimes are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.09 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 27%.
Defensively: Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Ajaccio in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Ajaccio away?
Nimes's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.20 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Nimes or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nimes
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 0, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Ajaccio 1-0 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nimes see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 40%, Ajaccio 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Nimes and 20% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ajaccio in 40%; Nimes have failed to score in 60% of games; Ajaccio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nimes's recent matches and 40% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nimes's recent games and 20% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Nimes 0-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.94 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nimes fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ajaccio outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 30% | Draw 33% | Ajaccio 36%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 46%, Ajaccio 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.