Nancy 0-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Marcel Picot to face Nancy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Monday 19 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Stade Marcel Picot this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Nancy against 1.30 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Nancy 1W, Guingamp 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nancy — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 39% versus Guingamp 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 44% | Guingamp 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.05 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.717 / defence 1.002 | Guingamp attack 1.113 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.166. Nancy's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Nancy games / 52 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 12% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Nancy 1.05 / Guingamp 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.717 / def 1.002 | Guingamp attack 1.113 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Guingamp xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Guingamp kick off?
Nancy vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Nancy 0 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Nancy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Guingamp part of?
Nancy vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 30% chance of winning, Guingamp a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nancy and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Nancy 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in?
Nancy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.72x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.11x) against Nancy's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
30%
3.34
28%
3.60
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.30
Guingamp xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nancy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Nancy and 1.30 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nancy come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 3D 9L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Nancy against 1.44 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nancy's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Nancy are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.56 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.25 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nancy have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nancy
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Nancy 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 12%, Guingamp 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Nancy) and 75% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Nancy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Nancy's recent matches and 75% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Nancy's recent games and 75% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Nancy 0-3 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.05 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 42%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 44%, Guingamp 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.