Montpellier vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade de la Mosson to face Montpellier in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Mosson.
Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Montpellier's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Montpellier 1W, Guingamp 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Montpellier winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Montpellier — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 40% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 31% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.27 xG and Guingamp 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.038 / defence 0.691 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Montpellier's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Montpellier games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 47% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 24%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 4.17. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Montpellier if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 50% | Guingamp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 47% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Montpellier 1.27 / Guingamp 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.038 / def 0.691 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Guingamp kick off?
Montpellier vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 January 2027 at Stade de la Mosson.
Where is Montpellier vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Guingamp part of?
Montpellier vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 47% chance of winning, Guingamp a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Montpellier and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Montpellier and Guingamp in?
Montpellier (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.04x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.89x) against Montpellier's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
47%
2.15
29%
3.43
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.10
0.83
Guingamp xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.83 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Montpellier's recent record stands at 21W 12D 12L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 19L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Montpellier by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Montpellier are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Guingamp away?
Montpellier's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.77 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Guingamp in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Montpellier
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Guingamp?
From 2 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Montpellier 3-1 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 54%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Montpellier) and 59% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Montpellier's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Montpellier's recent games and 59% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Guingamp tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.