Montpellier 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade de la Mosson to face Montpellier in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Guingamp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Montpellier, 1.70 for Guingamp — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Montpellier 0W, Guingamp 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Montpellier — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 41% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 43% | Guingamp 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.896 / defence 1.149 | Guingamp attack 1.226 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Montpellier games / 54 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 27% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 49%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Guingamp 2.04. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 27% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Montpellier 1.19 / Guingamp 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.896 / def 1.149 | Guingamp attack 1.226 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Guingamp xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Guingamp kick off?
Montpellier vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Montpellier 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Montpellier vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Guingamp part of?
Montpellier vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 27% chance of winning, Guingamp a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Montpellier and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Montpellier 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Montpellier and Guingamp in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.90x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.23x) against Montpellier's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
27%
3.67
24%
4.14
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.87
1.67
Guingamp xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.56
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.67 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Montpellier's recent record stands at 12W 8D 34L from 54 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 20L across 54 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 7W 6D 14L from 27 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 12W 3D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Montpellier are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.57 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 12W 8D 34L in their last 54 games (0.81 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 9D 20L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Montpellier
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Guingamp?
From 2 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Montpellier 3-1 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 56%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Montpellier) and 63% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Montpellier's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Montpellier's matches and 63% of Guingamp's.
Do Montpellier and Guingamp tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.67 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Montpellier beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 1.23 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 27% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 49%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 43%, Guingamp 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.