Le Havre 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Le Havre take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.38 PPG across 8 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 0.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.62 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Ligue 2 appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.38 PPG for Le Havre against 1.38 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Le Havre register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Quevilly in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Quevilly 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 25% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.10 xG and Quevilly 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.985 / defence 1.104 | Quevilly attack 0.952 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Le Havre games / 8 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Quevilly 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 75% | Quevilly 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 31% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Le Havre 1.10 / Quevilly 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.985 / def 1.104 | Quevilly attack 0.952 / def 1.345 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Quevilly xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Quevilly kick off?
Le Havre vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Quevilly?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Le Havre vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Quevilly part of?
Le Havre vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 31% chance of winning, Quevilly a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Le Havre and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Quevilly in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-5D-1L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.95x) against Le Havre's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.70
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.21
1.11
Quevilly xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.11 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Havre's recent record stands at 2W 5D 1L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Le Havre against 1.38 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly in 62%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.25 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Quevilly in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
1
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Quevilly have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Quevilly?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Le Havre, 75% for Quevilly — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Le Havre) and 50% (Quevilly).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Le Havre's games and 75% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Quevilly tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Quevilly 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.10 xG and Quevilly 1.11 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Quevilly attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 31% | Draw 37% | Quevilly 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 25%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.38 PPG, Quevilly 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.