Le Havre 1-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Le Havre welcome Nancy to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nancy have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.00 PPG versus Nancy's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Le Havre, 0 for Nancy and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Nancy in-play and half-time data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Nancy 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Nancy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.35 xG and Nancy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.772 / defence 1.263 | Nancy attack 0.781 / defence 1.734. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 0.975. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.734 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Le Havre games / 25 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 30% | Nancy 26%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Nancy 3.85. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Nancy 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 45% | Draw 30% | Nancy 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Le Havre 1.35 / Nancy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.772 / def 1.263 | Nancy attack 0.781 / def 1.734 | league avg home 1.010 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Nancy xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nancy kick off?
Le Havre vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nancy?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Le Havre vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nancy part of?
Le Havre vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 45% chance of winning, Nancy a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Le Havre and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Nancy in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.77) and Nancy's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.36
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.31
0.96
Nancy xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.96 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 11D 6L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.80 PPG from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy in 60%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nancy in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 8W 11D 6L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Nancy have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nancy away?
Le Havre's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.31 PPG; Nancy away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Nancy in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Le Havre 1-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nancy?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 38%, Nancy 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Le Havre) and 54% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games; Nancy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Le Havre's recent matches and 69% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Le Havre's recent games and 54% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nancy tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nancy in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Nancy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nancy 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.35 xG and Nancy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nancy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Nancy attack 0.78 / defence 1.73, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 45% | Draw 30% | Nancy 26%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Nancy 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.