Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Le Havre take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.71 xG and Guingamp 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Le Havre games / 0 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 21% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Guingamp 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 21% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Le Havre 0.71 / Guingamp 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Guingamp xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Guingamp kick off?
Le Havre vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Le Havre vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Guingamp part of?
Le Havre vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Le Havre and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Guingamp in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.85x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Guingamp xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.00 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Pre-Season
Guingamp
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Guingamp have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 1, as Le Havre and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.71 xG and Guingamp 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 21% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.