Le Havre 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grenoble make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Grenoble (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Grenoble away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Le Havre, 1.40 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Havre 1W, Grenoble 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Le Havre 38% | Grenoble 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Grenoble 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.90 xG and Grenoble 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.884 / defence 1.397 | Grenoble attack 0.761 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Data: 34 Le Havre games / 34 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 29% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 38%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Grenoble 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Grenoble 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 29% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Le Havre 0.90 / Grenoble 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.884 / def 1.397 | Grenoble attack 0.761 / def 1.082 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Grenoble xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Grenoble kick off?
Le Havre vs Grenoble kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Grenoble?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Le Havre vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Grenoble part of?
Le Havre vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 29% chance of winning, Grenoble a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Le Havre and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Grenoble?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Grenoble in?
Le Havre (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Grenoble's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.76x) against Le Havre's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.03
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.00
1.09
Grenoble xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.09 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 13W 11D 10L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Grenoble's form line: 11W 6D 17L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Le Havre against 1.15 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 4W 3D 10L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.85 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 29%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Grenoble in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 11D 10L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 11W 6D 17L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Grenoble away?
Le Havre's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.35 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Grenoble in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Grenoble have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Grenoble 0-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 41% (Le Havre) and 24% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Le Havre and 29% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Grenoble in 35%; Le Havre have failed to score in 35% of games; Grenoble in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Le Havre's recent matches and 24% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 29% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Grenoble tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.90 xG and Grenoble 1.09 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.88 / defence 1.40 against Grenoble attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 29% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 38%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Grenoble 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.47 PPG, Grenoble 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.