Laval 0-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Laval and Quevilly meet at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Laval have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Quevilly (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Quevilly arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Quevilly 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 54% | Quevilly 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.02 xG and Quevilly 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.013 / defence 1.190 | Quevilly attack 0.903 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.005. Data: 24 Laval games / 62 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 35%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Quevilly 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 50% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Laval 1.02 / Quevilly 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.013 / def 1.190 | Quevilly attack 0.903 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Quevilly xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Quevilly kick off?
Laval vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Quevilly?
Laval 0 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Laval vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Quevilly part of?
Laval vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 32% chance of winning, Quevilly a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Laval and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Laval and Quevilly in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Quevilly (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.01) and Quevilly's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.90x) against Laval's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
32%
3.12
33%
3.03
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Laval xG
Total xG
2.10
1.08
Quevilly xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Laval and 1.08 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 4D 11L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Laval against 1.46 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Laval's home form reads 5W 2D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.17 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Quevilly in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Quevilly away?
Laval's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.42 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Laval or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Quevilly in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Laval 2-4 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 58%, Quevilly 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Laval) and 25% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 50%; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Laval's recent matches and 17% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Laval's recent games and 25% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Quevilly tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.02 xG and Quevilly 1.08 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Quevilly attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 32% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 35%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 54%, Quevilly 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.29 PPG, Quevilly 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.