Laval 1-3 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 2W 1D 2L across 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Laval, 0.90 for Le Havre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 40% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 40% | Le Havre 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.12 xG and Le Havre 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.067 / defence 1.450 | Le Havre attack 1.350 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Le Havre have an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Laval games / 43 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 19% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 61%. Fair-value odds: Laval 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Laval 40% | Le Havre 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 19% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Laval 1.12 / Le Havre 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.067 / def 1.450 | Le Havre attack 1.350 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Laval xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Le Havre xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Le Havre kick off?
Laval vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Le Havre?
Laval 1 - 3 Le Havre.
Where is Laval vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Le Havre part of?
Laval vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 19% chance of winning, Le Havre a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Laval and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Le Havre in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.35x) against Laval's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
19%
5.37
21%
4.81
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Laval xG
Total xG
3.28
2.15
Le Havre xG
5.37
19%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
12%
8.62
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
2%
46.29
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Laval and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Laval and 2.15 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 1L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 1.20 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Laval have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Le Havre in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Laval or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Le Havre in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Laval
0
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 0, Le Havre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Le Havre 2-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 40%, Le Havre 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Laval and 20% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Laval keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Le Havre in 40%; Le Havre in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Laval's recent matches and 40% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Laval's recent games and 20% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Le Havre tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Laval 1-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.12 xG and Le Havre 2.15 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 2.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.07 / defence 1.45 against Le Havre attack 1.35 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 19% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 61%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 40%, Le Havre 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.40 PPG, Le Havre 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Laval shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.