Laval 2-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Guingamp (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Laval face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Laval's 2 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 46% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 39% | Guingamp 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.98 xG and Guingamp 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.806 / defence 1.141 | Guingamp attack 1.074 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.173. Data: 59 Laval games / 59 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 24% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 46%. Fair-value odds: Laval 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Laval 40% | Guingamp 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 24% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Laval 0.98 / Guingamp 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.806 / def 1.141 | Guingamp attack 1.074 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Laval 2 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 24% chance of winning, Guingamp a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 5W.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.81) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
24%
4.08
29%
3.43
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Laval xG
Total xG
2.42
1.44
Guingamp xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Laval and 1.44 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Laval have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 18D 24L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 25W 12D 22L from 59 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.17 PPG, Guingamp on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (8W 8D 13L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 5D 13L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.49 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 games (1.17 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.10 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Laval or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Guingamp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 48%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Laval) and 62% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Laval's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Laval's recent games and 62% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Guingamp tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and Guingamp share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval and Guingamp finished level at 2-2 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.98 xG and Guingamp 1.44 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 24% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 46%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 39%, Guingamp 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.