Laval 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guingamp — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Laval have won 2, Guingamp 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 49% versus Guingamp 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.15 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.933 / defence 1.114 | Guingamp attack 0.984 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.115. Data: 39 Laval games / 39 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Laval 80% | Guingamp 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Laval 1.15 / Guingamp 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.933 / def 1.114 | Guingamp attack 0.984 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Guingamp xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Laval 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 34% chance of winning, Guingamp a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.93) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.47
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Laval xG
Total xG
2.37
1.22
Guingamp xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Laval and 1.22 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Laval have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 15W 10D 14L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 14W 12D 13L from 39 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.41 PPG, Guingamp on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 8W 5D 6L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.21 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Laval or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 63%, Guingamp 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Laval) and 42% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 42%; Guingamp in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Laval's recent matches and 42% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Laval's recent games and 42% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.15 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Laval 34% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 37%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.41 PPG, Guingamp 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.