Laval 0-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Francis Le Basser to take on Laval. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Laval, 2 for Estac Troyes and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 45% versus Estac Troyes 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 38% | Estac Troyes 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.88 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.749 / defence 1.076 | Estac Troyes attack 0.940 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.214. Laval's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Laval games / 48 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 26% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 44%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Estac Troyes 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Laval 50% | Estac Troyes 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 26% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Laval 0.88 / Estac Troyes 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.749 / def 1.076 | Estac Troyes attack 0.940 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Laval vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Laval 0 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Laval vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Estac Troyes part of?
Laval vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 26% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Laval and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Record (4 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 2W.
What form are Laval and Estac Troyes in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Laval's attack at 0.75x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
26%
3.79
29%
3.41
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Laval xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Laval and 1.23 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Laval come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 14D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (21W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.32 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Laval's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.32 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Estac Troyes away?
Laval's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.36 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Laval or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estac Troyes have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Laval's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
4
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 50%, Estac Troyes 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Laval) and 46% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 36%; Laval have failed to score in 27% of games; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Laval's recent matches and 41% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Laval's recent games and 46% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.88 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Estac Troyes attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 26% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 44%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 38%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.32 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.