Guingamp 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp at Stade de Roudourou this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.80 PPG, PAU 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAU in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 5, PAU 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
PAU in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus PAU 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 62% | PAU 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.91 xG and PAU 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.071 / defence 1.110 | PAU attack 1.006 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.199. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Guingamp games / 47 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | PAU 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | PAU 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Guingamp 1.91 / PAU 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.071 / def 1.110 | PAU attack 1.006 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.34
PAU xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Guingamp 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 51% chance of winning, PAU a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (8 meetings): Guingamp 5W | Draws 0 | PAU 3W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.07) and PAU's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.49
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.25
1.34
PAU xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
4%
25.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.34 for PAU, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 47 games, going 21W 8D 18L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.36 PPG from 47 outings (16W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.51 PPG, PAU on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (4W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 8D 18L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while PAU have gone 16W 16D 15L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
Guingamp's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.65 PPG; PAU away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, PAU 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Guingamp and 61% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; PAU in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Guingamp's games and 65% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Guingamp's matches and 61% of PAU's.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PAU in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 14, as Guingamp and PAU drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.91 xG and PAU 1.34 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against PAU attack 1.01 / defence 1.37, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 51% | Draw 22% | PAU 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 62%, PAU 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.51 PPG, PAU 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.