Guingamp 1-2 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Nimes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Guingamp, 1.10 for Nimes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Guingamp, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Nimes — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Guingamp and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Nimes — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Nimes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Nimes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.35 xG and Nimes 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.932 / defence 1.399 | Nimes attack 0.920 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Guingamp games / 58 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 27% | Nimes 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Nimes 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Nimes 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 27% | Nimes 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Guingamp 1.35 / Nimes 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.932 / def 1.399 | Nimes attack 0.920 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Nimes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Nimes xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Nimes kick off?
Guingamp vs Nimes kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Nimes?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Nimes.
Where is Guingamp vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Nimes part of?
Guingamp vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Nimes a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Guingamp and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nimes?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 0 | Nimes 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Nimes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Nimes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.93x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (0.92x) against Guingamp's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.77
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.73
1.37
Nimes xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.37 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 22W 19D 17L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 19W 11D 28L from 58 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Guingamp against 1.17 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 6D 15L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Nimes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 19D 17L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Nimes have gone 19W 11D 28L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Nimes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.45 PPG; Nimes away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nimes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Guingamp
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 3, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Guingamp 1-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Nimes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 66%, Nimes 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Guingamp) and 55% (Nimes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nimes in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Guingamp's games and 52% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Guingamp's matches and 55% of Nimes's.
Do Guingamp and Nimes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Nimes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nimes edge out Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.35 xG and Nimes 1.37 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 1.40 against Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 27% | Nimes 37%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Nimes 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.