Guingamp 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Montpellier in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 15 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Montpellier have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Montpellier's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Guingamp's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus Montpellier 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Montpellier 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.47 xG and Montpellier 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.101 / defence 1.442 | Montpellier attack 0.878 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.097. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 4 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Montpellier 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 50% | Montpellier 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Monday 15 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Guingamp 1.47 / Montpellier 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.101 / def 1.442 | Montpellier attack 0.878 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Montpellier xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Montpellier kick off?
Guingamp vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 September 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Montpellier?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Guingamp vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Montpellier part of?
Guingamp vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Montpellier a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Guingamp and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Montpellier?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Montpellier in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Montpellier (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.10x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.88x) against Guingamp's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.95
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.86
1.39
Montpellier xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.39 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guingamp come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 5D 16L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Montpellier sit at 0.55 PPG from 38 outings (5W 6D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Montpellier, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Montpellier — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Guingamp's home form reads 8W 4D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Montpellier have taken 0.33 points per game from 18 outings (2W 0D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.71 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Montpellier
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 17W 5D 16L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 5W 6D 27L in their last 38 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Montpellier away?
Guingamp's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.56 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Montpellier have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Montpellier 3-1 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Montpellier 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Guingamp) and 39% (Montpellier). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 72%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 28% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Guingamp's matches and 39% of Montpellier's.
Do Guingamp and Montpellier tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.47 xG and Montpellier 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.44 against Montpellier attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 36%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Montpellier 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.