Grenoble 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Grenoble take on Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grenoble and Quevilly meet at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grenoble have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade des Alpes — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Grenoble against 1.80 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Grenoble have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Quevilly in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Quevilly winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 29% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 33% | Quevilly 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.86 xG and Quevilly 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.787 / defence 0.918 | Quevilly attack 0.907 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.068. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Grenoble games / 58 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 33%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Quevilly 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 30% | Quevilly 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Grenoble 0.86 / Quevilly 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.787 / def 0.918 | Quevilly attack 0.907 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Quevilly xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Quevilly kick off?
Grenoble vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Grenoble 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Grenoble vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Quevilly part of?
Grenoble vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 32% chance of winning, Quevilly a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Grenoble and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in?
Grenoble (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.79x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.91x) against Grenoble's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
34%
2.91
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.75
0.89
Quevilly xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 15.4 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.89 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Grenoble come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 14D 24L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (18W 16D 24L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Grenoble against 1.21 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Grenoble's home form reads 12W 7D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Quevilly away?
Grenoble's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.54 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Quevilly in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Grenoble
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Quevilly?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 39% (Grenoble) and 29% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Grenoble) and 39% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 32% of games; Quevilly in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Grenoble's recent matches and 29% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Grenoble's recent games and 39% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Quevilly tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Quevilly 1-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.86 xG and Quevilly 0.89 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Quevilly attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 32% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Grenoble win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 33%, Quevilly 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.28 PPG, Quevilly 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.