Grenoble 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grenoble's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
PAU (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grenoble have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAU in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grenoble, 1 for PAU and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Grenoble half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 36% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 36% | PAU 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.58 xG and PAU 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.249 / defence 1.020 | PAU attack 0.974 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Data: 63 Grenoble games / 63 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 49% | Draw 25% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 3.85. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 60% | PAU 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 49% | Draw 25% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Grenoble 1.58 / PAU 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.249 / def 1.020 | PAU attack 0.974 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.10
PAU xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs PAU kick off?
Grenoble vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Grenoble 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Grenoble vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs PAU part of?
Grenoble vs PAU is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 49% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Grenoble and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 2 | PAU 1W.
What form are Grenoble and PAU in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. PAU (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.25) and PAU's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.97x) against Grenoble's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.00
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.68
1.10
PAU xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Grenoble and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.10 for PAU, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grenoble's recent record stands at 24W 19D 20L from 63 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 22L across 63 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Grenoble against 1.29 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grenoble have managed 15W 10D 6L from 31 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 9W 10D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and PAU in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 24W 19D 20L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 21D 22L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or PAU away?
Grenoble's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.77 PPG; PAU away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Grenoble or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAU in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grenoble
5
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, PAU have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when PAU 2-2 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 42%, PAU 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Grenoble) and 42% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 32% of games; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Grenoble's recent matches and 58% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Grenoble's recent games and 42% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and PAU tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, PAU in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Grenoble 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Grenoble 0-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.58 xG and PAU 1.10 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 49% | Draw 25% | PAU 26%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 36%, PAU 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.44 PPG, PAU 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.