Grenoble 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade des Alpes to face Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Grenoble's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade des Alpes this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grenoble lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Grenoble winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 36% versus Amiens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 36% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.94 xG and Amiens 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.851 / defence 0.953 | Amiens attack 0.941 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Data: 75 Grenoble games / 75 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Amiens 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 40% | Amiens 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Grenoble 0.94 / Amiens 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.851 / def 0.953 | Amiens attack 0.941 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Amiens kick off?
Grenoble vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Grenoble 1 - 3 Amiens.
Where is Grenoble vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Amiens part of?
Grenoble vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 31% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Grenoble and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
Record (5 meetings): Grenoble 2W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Amiens (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.85x the league average against Amiens's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.94x) against Grenoble's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
31%
3.22
33%
3.07
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.99
1.05
Amiens xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.3 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.05 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 27W 21D 27L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 24W 25D 26L from 75 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Grenoble against 1.29 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.62 PPG from 37 outings (16W 12D 9L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 11W 12D 14L from 37 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grenoble are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.97 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Amiens in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 27W 21D 27L in their last 75 games (1.36 PPG), while Amiens have gone 24W 25D 26L in their last 75 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Amiens away?
Grenoble's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.62 PPG; Amiens away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grenoble have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 4-1 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Grenoble
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Grenoble 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Amiens?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 38%, Amiens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Grenoble) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 40% of games; Amiens in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Grenoble's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Grenoble's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Amiens tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Amiens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Grenoble 1-3 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.94 xG and Amiens 1.05 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 31% | Draw 33% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 36%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.36 PPG, Amiens 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.