Dunkerque 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Dunkerque welcome Sochaux to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sochaux — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Sochaux have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Dunkerque) versus 1.60 (Sochaux). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Sochaux and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sochaux trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Sochaux 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 37% | Sochaux 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.78 xG and Sochaux 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.695 / defence 1.144 | Sochaux attack 0.923 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.060. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Dunkerque games / 21 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 44%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sochaux 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 30% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Dunkerque 0.78 / Sochaux 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.695 / def 1.144 | Sochaux attack 0.923 / def 1.138 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sochaux xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Sochaux kick off?
Dunkerque vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Sochaux?
Dunkerque 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Dunkerque vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Sochaux part of?
Dunkerque vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, Sochaux a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dunkerque and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Sochaux?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Sochaux in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.69) and Sochaux's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
25%
3.96
31%
3.21
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.90
1.12
Sochaux xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.12 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 4D 11L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (10W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dunkerque's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Sochaux have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.11 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 10W 6D 3L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.89 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sochaux in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
1
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 0, Sochaux have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when Dunkerque 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 22% BTTS, Sochaux 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Dunkerque and 44% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sochaux in 44%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 56% of games; Sochaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 44% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Dunkerque's recent games and 44% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Sochaux tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 22% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dunkerque's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Sochaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.78 xG and Sochaux 1.12 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sochaux landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Sochaux attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 44%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 37%, Sochaux 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.