Dunkerque 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Dunkerque welcome Rodez to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel-Tribut: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Rodez have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Dunkerque) versus 1.40 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dunkerque, 1 for Rodez and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Rodez 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Rodez 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.03 xG and Rodez 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.838 / defence 1.158 | Rodez attack 0.945 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.142. Data: 40 Dunkerque games / 40 Rodez games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 31% | Draw 28% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 40% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 31% | Draw 28% | Rodez 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Dunkerque 1.03 / Rodez 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.838 / def 1.158 | Rodez attack 0.945 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Rodez kick off?
Dunkerque vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Dunkerque vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Rodez part of?
Dunkerque vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 31% chance of winning, Rodez a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dunkerque and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
31%
3.27
28%
3.54
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.28
1.25
Rodez xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.25 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 12W 10D 18L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.15 PPG, Rodez on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 4W 4D 12L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.55 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 12W 10D 18L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Rodez have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.80 PPG; Rodez away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 35%, Rodez 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dunkerque) and 55% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 65% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dunkerque's recent games and 55% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Rodez tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rodez in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.03 xG and Rodez 1.25 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Rodez attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 31% | Draw 28% | Rodez 41%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Rodez 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.15 PPG, Rodez 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.