Dunkerque 0-1 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Martigues encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Martigues make the trip to Stade Marcel-Tribut to face Dunkerque in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Dunkerque's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Dunkerque have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dunkerque are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Martigues have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Martigues's away record over their last 9 away games: 3W 2D 4L (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.22 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Dunkerque's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Martigues's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Dunkerque, 0 for Martigues and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Dunkerque 1–1 Martigues — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Martigues — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 55% versus Martigues 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 40% | Martigues 45%). Note also that Martigues surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Dunkerque recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.81 xG and Martigues 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Martigues attack 0.843 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.015. Martigues's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dunkerque's projected output up. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 58 games and Martigues's last 20.
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 60% | Draw 23% | Martigues 17%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.65 | Draw 4.42 | Martigues 5.90. The model has a clear lean to Dunkerque (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 50% (last 10 home games) | Martigues 44% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 60% | Draw 23% | Martigues 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dunkerque 1.81 / Martigues 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Martigues attack 0.843 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Martigues xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dunkerque vs Martigues FAQs
What time does Dunkerque vs Martigues kick off?
Dunkerque vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Martigues?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Martigues.
Where is Dunkerque vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Martigues part of?
Dunkerque vs Martigues is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 60% chance of winning, Martigues a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dunkerque and Martigues will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dunkerque vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 1.05x the league average against Martigues's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Martigues's attack (0.84x) against Dunkerque's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Dunkerque's last 58 games and Martigues's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.42
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.65
0.84
Martigues xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
36.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dunkerque vs Martigues Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.84 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Martigues?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 11W 3D 6L from 20 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Martigues, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 13L across 20 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Martigues heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 8W 0D 1L from their last 9 home games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Dunkerque are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Martigues's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across their last 9 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.75 PPG overall record — Martigues travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.65 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues in 25%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Martigues
Blended
Dunkerque (Home) vs Martigues (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dunkerque
Blended
Martigues
Blended
❓ Dunkerque vs Martigues Form FAQs
What form are Dunkerque and Martigues in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while Martigues have gone 4W 3D 13L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Martigues away?
Dunkerque's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 2.67 PPG; Martigues away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Martigues in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Dunkerque and Martigues, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
1
Draws
1
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Dunkerque vs Martigues H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Martigues?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dunkerque have won 0, Martigues have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Martigues last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2025: Dunkerque 0-1 Martigues.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Martigues?
Martigues have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Martigues are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 56%, Martigues 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dunkerque) and 56% (Martigues). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Martigues in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dunkerque vs Martigues Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dunkerque and Martigues matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 44% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dunkerque and Martigues matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Dunkerque's matches and 56% of Martigues's.
Do Dunkerque and Martigues matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 89% of Martigues's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Martigues defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Martigues beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.81 xG and Martigues 0.84 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Martigues attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 60% | Draw 23% | Martigues 17%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 40%, Martigues 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Martigues's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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