Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Annecy meet at Stade Marcel Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Marcel Tribut — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Dunkerque's favour (2.30 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dunkerque, 3 for Annecy and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Annecy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 44% | Annecy 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.58 xG and Annecy 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.327 / defence 0.964 | Annecy attack 1.020 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.157. Dunkerque carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.58 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Dunkerque games / 54 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 48% | Draw 25% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Annecy 3.70. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Annecy lead the H2H ledger, but Dunkerque carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 60% | Annecy 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 48% | Draw 25% | Annecy 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Dunkerque 1.58 / Annecy 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.327 / def 0.964 | Annecy attack 1.020 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Annecy xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Annecy kick off?
Dunkerque vs Annecy kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Dunkerque vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Annecy part of?
Dunkerque vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dunkerque and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Record (5 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 3W.
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (1.33) and Annecy's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.02x) against Dunkerque's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
48%
2.10
25%
4.01
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
Annecy xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.14 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 27W 11D 16L from 54 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 19L across 54 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.46 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 18W 4D 5L from 27 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Dunkerque are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Annecy's away record stands at 9W 5D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 27W 11D 16L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Annecy have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Annecy away?
Dunkerque's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 2.15 PPG; Annecy away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 48%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dunkerque) and 44% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dunkerque's recent games and 44% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Annecy tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.58 xG and Annecy 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.33 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 48% | Draw 25% | Annecy 27%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Annecy 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.70 PPG, Annecy 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.